WHAT WILL UKRAINE LOSE?

Taking for granted the annexation of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk by Russia, it can be considered that, of the 4 most important Ukrainian mineral resources, two will be strongly taken away by the annexation: metals and coal, given that large reserves of these elements are concentrated in Luhansk. The other two, gas and oil, are concentrated in Kharkiv and the Carpathians, and will be little affected.

Source: SecDev analysis

WAR STATUS IN KHERSON AND LUHANSK

With the advance of the War in Ukraine, Russia on June 14, 2022 partially occupied 5 oblasts of the country: Kharkiv, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk and Donetsk. Kharkiv and Donetsk occupied less than 1/2 of their area, Zaporizhzhia about 3/4, Luhansk and Kherson almost 100%. Combining data from Occupied territories of Ukraine (SEE) and Google Earth, we bring up the strongholds of resistance in these last two oblasts. In Luhansk and resistance is limited to a small portion in the far west, while in Kherson there are two fronts, one in the north, the other in the west.

LAST UKRAINIAN RESISTANCES IN WEST LUHANSK

LAST UKRAINIAN RESISTANCES IN NORTH AND PARTIAL WEST KHERSON

LAST UKRAINIAN RESISTANCE IN WEST AND SW KHERSON

A TINY CRYSTAL

In the map below we have the best established map of the Black Sea region, and several countries marked. However, with the exception of Belarus, Bulgaria, Romania and Kazakhstan, all the others face serious territorial disputes, so in practice, taking into account regional movements, the real map of power is quite different.

In a scenario of instability, it is necessary to analyze 6 partially recognized states:

Transnistria (Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic - SEE) - a de facto independent state at eastern Moldava (claimed in whole by this country), recognised only by Abkhazia, Artsakh and South Ossetia.

Abkhazia (Republic of Abkhazia - SEE) - northwest part of Georgia, recognised by Russia, Nauru, Nicaragua, Syria, Venezuela, Artsakh, South Ossetia and Transnistria. Claimed in whole by Georgia as the Autonomous Republic of Abkhazia.

South Ossetia (Republic of South Ossetia – the State of Alania - SEE) - a small piece north of Georgia, a de facto independent state, recognised by Russia, Nicaragua, Nauru, Syria, Venezuela, Abkhazia, Artsakh and Transnistria. Claimed in whole by Georgia as the Provisional Administrative Entity of South Ossetia.

Artsakh (Republic of Artsakh - SEE) -  controling a part of the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast, including the capital of Stepanakert, a de facto independent state, recognised only by Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria. Claimed in whole by Azerbaijan.

Donetsk People's Republic (SEE) - a separatist pro-russian region of east Ukraine, recognised by Russia, South Ossetia and the Luhansk People's Republic. Claimed in whole by Ukraine as part of Donetsk Oblast.

Luhansk People's Republic (SEE) - like Donetsk, a separatist pro-russian region of east Ukraine, recognised by Russia, South Ossetia and the Donetsk People's Republic. Claimed in whole by Ukraine as part of Luhansk Oblast.

There are 13 states recognized by at least one self-declared state (WIKI), but which are not members of the United Nations: the 6 mentioned above, Niue and Cook in Oceania, Somaliland and Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic in Africa, Kosovo, Northern Cyprus and Taiwan.

Donetsk and Luhansk are at the center of the Russian invasion of Ukraine (WIKI), which brought to the region a geographical element of analysis, which are the territories occupied/administered by Russia but internationally recognized as Ukrainian. These include the Crimea and vast areas controlled by Russian troops as part of the invasion.

Considering the states mentioned above and the territories of Russian occupation/administration in Ukraine, the most accurate map of power relations, as of the date of publication of this post, is as follows.